Market commentary

Commodities giant Glencore said it is reviewing its London listing as it reported a fall in 2024 earnings, but will return around $2.2 billion to shareholders.

Gold was racking up big gains on Monday, hitting a new high as President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats caused investors to pile into the yellow metal.

The S&P 500 E-mini futures are down more than 1.5%, while the Nasdaq is on track for a 1.7% drop.

Just how bad has North American free trade been for the US? Nafta (the North American Free Trade Agreement) was thrashed out by George H.W. Bush and ratified under Bill Clinton before coming into force in 1994. Then Donald Trump renegotiated and renamed it the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in one of the signature achievements of his first administration. The new treaty included a provision that it should be renegotiated again in 2026, but we now know that Trump wants to do it even sooner and is prepared to threaten 25% tariffs (not on the face of it permitted under the treaty) to force others to the table.

On Thursday, Piazza Affari rose back above 35,300, with European stock exchanges closing mixed, with the London Stock Exchange doing best of all and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange retreating.

In my view, one of the key factors contributing to the dollar’s strength is the economic outlook for the U.S., as the Federal Reserve has indicated a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025, which helps stabilize the high yields on US Treasury bonds.

-- Wheat for March delivery fell 1.1% to $5.52 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday in reaction to reports from other agricultural agencies reporting stronger crops world-wide, including Australia, a competitor on the wheat export market.

Fundamentals alone suggest oil prices should be in the mid to high $80s. That’s what Al Salazar, a director at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) and the author of a recent report by the company focusing on oil prices, said in a statement sent to Rigzone late Tuesday.

ZAR exchange rates caught a bid in the initial stages of news that Donald Trump and his Republicans swept the board in last week's vote, but strength proved short-lived.

Germany CPI, ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment; UK Unemployment; trading updates for AstraZeneca, Bayer, Infineon Technologies

That means oil has now dropped by $10/barrel over the last three weeks, and is now at a fresh four-week low.

In a release sent to Rigzone by the KPMG team, KPMG revealed that a survey of 120 energy, natural resources, and chemicals (ENRC) sector leaders from across the globe found that CEOs in the ENRC space “are displaying surprising confidence despite economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and evolving technologies”.

The 'familiar geopolitical fear bid' has returned to the market in a big way: analyst

Another poor economic survey confirms Germany's economy is likely in a recession. But those looking ahead see the potential for a turnaround. The Institute for Economic Research (ifo) said its survey of business sentiment fell for a fifth consecutive month to 85.4 in September from 88.6 in August.

London’s FTSE 100 opened in the red on Wednesday as investors assessed UK inflation data and looked ahead to a finely-balanced US interest rate call.

Its latest Fund Manager Survey shows rising optimism that cuts to US interest rates will lead to a ‘soft landing’ for America’s economy.

Gold futures continue to set records on Tuesday on growing optimism over U.S. interest rate cuts and as central banks continue to build reserves.

U.K. GDP, trade, industrial production, business investment; trading updates from Admiral Group, Orsted, NN Group, X5 Retail Group, Adyen

Germany industrial production index, foreign trade; trading updates from Glencore, ABN Amro, Commerzbank, Novo Nordisk, WPP, Siemens Energy, Puma, Continental, Beiersdorf, Hiscox, Legal & General Group, Tullow Oil, Ahold Delhaize, A.P. Moller-Maersk, SAS

Global stock markets are in retreat today as the selloff which began last week, sparked by fears of a US recession, accelerates.

Oil futures settled lower Monday, stretching their losses in the wake of three consecutive weekly declines as prices failed to hold on to early gains stemming from fears of a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

London’s equity markets started the week on a strong footing on Monday, though the pound weakened ahead of a trio of central bank decisions.

European stock futures traded mixed. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar and Treasury yields edged lower, while oil futures were little changed and gold rose slightly.

The price of bitcoin has jumped 10% in a move that some analysts have linked to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on Saturday.

Gold futures rose to their highest price since late May on soft U.S. inflation data, boosting rate-cut hopes, and increasing geopolitical tensions.

European stock futures were mixed. Asian stock benchmarks mostly advanced; the dollar and Treasury yields steadied; while oil futures fell and gold edged higher.

President Joe Biden had a shaky performance in last night’s presidential debate, triggering panic in the Democrat camp. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, repeated multiple falsehoods while doubling down on his record of cutting taxes and hiking tariffs during his first presidential term.

On Wednesday, June 12, 2024 the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and indicated that only one rate cut is likely before the end of the year.

The Paris stock market has dropped deeply into the red, after Emmanual Macron stunned France by calling snap parliamentary elections last night. The CAC 40 is down 2% right now, a three-month low, with bank stocks falling over 4%.Macron called the snap poll after his centrist alliance was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right movement in the European parliamentary vote.

Oil futures finished higher Tuesday, with most traders expecting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies to roll over voluntary production cuts into the third quarter when they meet this weekend.

The artificial-intelligence-chip maker, which is also the market-cap behemoth of the moment, has been cropping up in any number of financial reports for quite a while now.

Stocks in London closed lower on Tuesday, as investor nerves around Bank of England interest rates dominated the market, before the next UK inflation print.

Losses for oil accelerate after data show a rise in U.S. wholesale prices Oil futures settled at a nine-week low on Tuesday, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its monthly forecasts largely unchanged while traders weighed the outlook for interest rates and their potential impact on energy demand.

"Germany appears to be at a cyclical turning point," says Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING Bank, commenting on the findings of April's Ifo index, Germany's most prominent leading indicator.

Brent crude is down 1.5% in early trading today at $85.94 per barrel, the lowest since 27th March.

Tonight, Bitcoin halving is predicted to occur at around 9PM EST. This is a significant event in the cryptocurrency world, with many curious to see how the value of the coin will be impacted.

The dollar's broad rise, building on Wednesday's strong gains following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data for March, signals doubts about prospects of U.S. interest-rate cuts, said Samer Hasn, market analyst at XS.com.

Oil prices have maintained an upward trend in the past week, marking a significant event as Brent crude surpassed $90.00 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $86.00 per barrel for the first time since last year.

During today's Friday trading, the GBP/USD pair oscillates around the 1.2602 level after a significant downward wave. The Bank of England (BoE) has yet to find strong reasons to lower interest rates, indicating its intention to maintain high-interest rates for a longer period to support continued moderate decline toward the central bank's targeted inflation level. I believe that the Bank of England's monetary policy remains constrained.

Stocks in London closed mixed on Friday, though trade was more confident in New York, on the back of a favourable US jobs report.

The crypto world watches with bated breath as BTC continues to hover around $68,000 to the dollar, below its all-time US high of $69,000.

After opening in the green, Wall Street was more hesitant on Thursday, as the latest inflation figures did nothing to dispel the uncertainties surrounding the timing of the Fed's next rate cuts.

Bitcoin surged 20% this week to surpass $60,000, its highest level since November 2021 when the cryptocurrency reached its record of more than $68,000.

Bitcoin rallied above $60,000 on Wednesday, riding its bullish momentum to its highest levels since November 2021, as more signs emerge that cryptocurrency's "winter" has ended.

For as long as there have been markets, gold has been considered a haven in times of hardship. But that may now be changing, with the mass exodus we have seen in recent months of investors flocking away from – not towards – gold ETFs.

Bitcoin is trying to consolidate above the 52K level at the beginning of the new week, after recording the highest weekly close since November of 2021, which represents the fourth consecutive week of gains. Bitcoin's gains came with positive net inflows of more than $2.2 billion during the past week, while outflows from GBTC continued to decline slightly to reach $624 million in the same period.

The Euro fell from a two-day high as the recent US producer-side inflation hinted the Fed will tighten its monetary policy further. The Greenback, meanwhile, gained momentum as interest rate traders set out to adjust to the Fed’s projected three rate cuts by 2024. Today’s trading session saw EUR/USD fall to a low of 1.0732. However, the currency soon found support and began showing slight signs of recovery. While writing, the EUR/USD pair trades at 1.0775.

It’s been about a month since spot bitcoin ETFs debuted on U.S. exchanges. Some cryptocurrency enthusiasts are already asking, “What’s next?” Answering that question isn’t easy. But many crypto ETF investors hope ethereum is next in line to be granted spot ETF status by the SEC. Hope may be enough to put more eyeballs on the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT). The fund debuted last October as one of the first futures-based ETFs providing exposure to ethereum. That is the second-largest digital currency by market value behind only bitcoin.

The ASX is poised to fall again on Tuesday, tracking the selloff in New York. At 8am AEDT, the ASX 200 index futures contract was pointing down by -0.4%. Overnight, the S&P 500 fell by -0.32%. The blue chips Dow Jones index was down by -0.71%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped by -0.2%. Fed Chairman Powell told a 60 Minute interview that market expectations of six rate cuts in 2024 were too optimistic.

Oil futures on Tuesday notched back-to-back gains to start the week, after a rout last week sent crude to three-week lows as the latest conflict developments in the Middle East fed concerns over risks to global crude supplies.

Oil prices ended the day marginally down from one-month-highs, amid some notable swings intraday, after Libya recently restarted production at its largest oil field. The pullback in prices came "in conjunction with no new developments in the Red Sea and the opening of Libya's largest oil field," said Rania Gule, market analyst at XS.com.

Over the past day, bitcoin’s value has experienced further decline, now plummeting below the $39K mark as ongoing bearish trends exert downward pressure. Following its dip under the $40K barrier on Monday, the leading crypto asset further depreciated by 5.3% relative to the U.S. dollar within the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin and ether dipped further Tuesday, extending their decline from Monday as traders weighed whether outflows from bitcoin ETFs would continue. Ether lost 7% Tuesday over 24-hours, putting it 14% lower over the week. Bitcoin was trading around $38,900 Tuesday morning in New York. Bitcoin is now down close to 20% since bitcoin ETFs hit the market in the US earlier this month.

Cryptocurrencies are trying to consolidate today after the bad performance they recorded throughout the second half of last week, which led to unexpected weekly losses. After Bitcoin recorded its lowest weekly close since the week ending last December 11, it returned and recorded gains of more than 2% this morning.

Wall Street legend Bob Farrell wasn't joking when he wrote down his investment rule number 10: Bull markets are more fun than bear markets. One glance over yesterday's share price performances instantly reveals why so many investors are waking up with a big smile on their face these days. There's money to be made, and in many cases, lots of it too! But can it last? Overall sentiment is exceptionally positive, yet again, and valuations are no longer dirt cheap as they were in September-October last year. This is the public debate taking place on Wall Street right now.

After the spectacular rally in the US stock market in 2023, investors were expecting the S&P 500 to continue rising and reach its first all-time high in almost two years. However, 2024 has started on a much more cautious note for investors as the market seems to catch its breath before its next move.

Aussie shares are poised to open higher on Tuesday in line with gains in New York. At 8am AEDT, the ASX 200 index futures was pointing up by +0.2%. Overnight, the S&P 500 rose by +0.45%, the blue chips Dow Jones index was flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lifted by +0.61%. Investors keep digesting more messages from Fed members, this time from Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, who said the market is a ‘bit ahead’ of central bank on rate cuts as she tried to calm investor exuberance driving up stocks and bonds. “The next phase is not when to reduce rates, even though that’s where the markets are at,” Mester told the Financial Times in an interview.

UK stocks make gains at lunchtime as investors bet on positive bank calls

Pound falls against the dollar after weak UK GDP data

Stocks up as US Fed decision edges closer

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Investors buy before trio of central bank calls

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Stocks up as US Fed decision edges closer

Pound falls against the dollar after weak UK GDP data

Pound falls against the dollar after weak UK GDP data

Oil prices finish higher after longest weekly losing streak since 2018

Samer Hasn, market analyst at asset broker XS Group, expects greater regulatory oversight in 2024. And that’s a good thing for investors, he tells crypto.news.

1501 GMT – Expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates before the Bank of England could continue lifting the pound against the euro, Rabobank senior currency analyst Jane Foley says in a note. She points to this week’s below-forecast eurozone inflation data and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s comments that it is premature to consider interest-rate cuts. Rabobank favors selling EUR/GBP rallies. “On the assumption that the market maintains the expectation that BOE rate cuts will lag those of the ECB, we expect sterling to find a little additional support in the coming months.” EUR/GBP falls to an 8-week low of 0.8600 on Friday, according to FactSet. ([email protected])

With equity markets open just a half day, the day after Thanksgiving is usually a noneventful day in financial markets. However, something notable did occur last Friday: Bitcoin jumped to its highest prices in 18 months. Bitcoin surged above $38,000 on November 24 for the first time since May 2022. In what could be a catalyst for exchange traded funds such as the Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF (SATO), bitcoin’s albeit brief history indicates that when the cryptocurrency moves to $38,000, momentum will carry it beyond $40,000.

Wall Street’s main indexes ended higher on Friday, boosted by a surge in technology stocks and a relatively calm session for bonds. Helping to support equities, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed following a surge in the previous session that was triggered by a weak 30-year bond sale and Fed chief Jerome Powell’s “sterner” tone on policy.